• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

Apple: The bull case, the bear case

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 7, 2010, 1:52 PM ET

An analyst takes his quarterly look at the company from both sides now

There are a lot of superlatives being thrown around this week as analysts position themselves for Apple’s (AAPL)‘s fiscal third quarter earnings report, scheduled for July 20.

In a note to clients issued Wednesday, Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi, not always the company’s greatest booster, called Apple “the most secularly attractive name in our coverage universe.”

Brian Marshall of Gleacher & Co. (GLCH), meanwhile, called it “the best technology company on the planet” as he raised his price target to $370 from $355 — nearly 50% above the stock’s current price.

Of course Marshall is a true Apple enthusiast, and he uses that “best technology company on the planet” line every chance he gets. But once a quarter he tries to balance his bullishness by channeling the bears in an instructive exercise he calls “What the bulls will point to … What the bears will point to.”

We’ve pasted the current edition below the fold:

What the Bulls will point to:
•    iPhone ramp is in early innings: With the iPhone now available in ~90 countries (compared to 80+ in June 2009 and 6 in June ’08), the global ramp has just begun and AAPL now has 150+ international carrier partners (recall RIMM has well over 400 carriers). Cumulative shipments of the iPhone since its June ’07 inception now total 51.2mil units.
•    Best technology company: Apple continues to gain share across its major product lines (iPhones, Macs and iPods). Its business model is becoming stronger over time as well as the company benefits from an increasing richness of its revenue mix and when ASP cuts come, customers typically migrate up the “SKU stack” and buy higher priced items with higher associated gross margins.
•    The Bank of Apple: Apple continues to generate tremendous amounts of cash flow from operations and its current net cash hoard (i.e., total cash minus total debt) now stands at $41.7bil (or $45 per share) – the single largest in the technology industry by far. This compares favorably to other large technology leaders with large net cash positions including: MSFT (~$27bil), Cisco (~$25bil) and GOOG (~$25bil). With AAPL shares currently trading at ~$250, the cash balance represents ~18% of the market capitalization (net cash $45.19/share).

What the Bears will point to:
•    Margins have peaked: Apple’s gross margin reached 41.8% in September ’09 and based on management’s guidance, gross margins are expected to decline significantly to ~36% in June ‘10. This trend should continue as pricing pressure will intensify going forward as the company aims to maintain its market share in a competitive environment. ASPs will simply decrease faster than cost of goods sold (COGS), thus negatively impacting the gross margin.
•    iPhone/iPad will cannibalize iPod family: The iPhone/iPad has successfully integrated the functionality of an iPod into a sleek smartphone/media player and has effectively rendered a significant portion of the iPod product family obsolete. Ever since the June ’07 introduction of the iPhone and the April ’10 introduction of the iPad, there has been a marked deceleration of unit sales of iPods on a Y/Y basis (in fact, posting a Y/Y decline in units the past four reported quarters). This presents a serious problem as iPods generated 17% of Apple’s total revenue in CY09.
•   Stratospheric carrier subsidies unsustainable: It is estimated that Apple receives approximately $450 from AT&T Wireless on the activation of an iPhone 3GS as part of a carrier subsidy program. It is also estimated that Apple receives an average subsidy of ~$300 from its international carrier partners as well. These subsidies are well above average of what other vendors (even RIMM) collect. After the introduction buzz of the iPhone 3GS has worn off and the subsidy agreements expire, the wholesale ASP of the iPhone will likely take a significant step down.

Traders Wednesday seem to be favoring the bull case. Apple closed at $258.67, up $10.04 (4.04%), in mid-afternoon trading.

See also:

  • J.P. Morgan ups Apple target to $390

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Digital sovereignty isn’t the same thing as digital isolation. Asia’s governments should be careful
Commentarydata sovereignty
Digital sovereignty isn’t the same thing as digital isolation. Asia’s governments should be careful
By Leonard LimJune 10, 2026
34 minutes ago
The curse of Trump watching sports in person: the home team seems to always lose
Arts & EntertainmentDonald Trump
The curse of Trump watching sports in person: the home team seems to always lose
By The Associated Press and Will WeissertJune 10, 2026
1 hour ago
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates (C) arrives for a closed-door interview with the House Oversight Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on June 10, 2026.
LawBill Gates
Gates testifies on Epstein: previous Fortune investigation reveals payments to his ex-girlfriend, $1M Microsoft deal
By Eva Roytburg, Joey Cappelletti, Hannah Schoenbaum and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
How the World Cup is a high-stakes stage for Big Tech’s AI push
NewslettersCIO Intelligence
How the World Cup is a high-stakes stage for Big Tech’s AI push
By John KellJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
EconomyDonald Trump
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
By The Associated Press and Christopher RugaberJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
A man guides a ship in the water.
EnergyOil
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
24 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.