- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that President Trump’s trade tariffs could lead to “higher inflation and slower growth” — and U.S. stocks declined on the news. Analysts keep saying the word “recession.” Asian markets, however, put on a buoyant performance this morning. The European indexes were soft in early trading. U.S. futures were pointing upward prior to the open.
The S&P 500 lost 2.2% yesterday. The Dow lost 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.1%. Chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices both fell 7% on the news that the former would be banned from exporting chips to China.
The declines came after the S&P experienced a “death cross” on Monday — where the 50-day moving average sank below the 100-day moving average. That’s an (unreliable) technical indicator of more declines ahead.
By contrast, the Asian markets were largely up today as investors considered whether President Trump may have underestimated their advantages in the trade war.
Here’s a snapshot of today’s action:
- Futures in the S&P 500 were up 1% this morning, pre-opening bell.
- India’s Nifty 50 rose 1.4%.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.35%.
- China’s SSE Composite was up marginally at 0.13%.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 and the UK’s FTSE 100 both lost half a point in early trading.
U.S. equities are being held back by fears of recession, which Powell’s speech did little to allay.
“Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s firm stance on prioritizing inflation has dashed expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts,” said George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera, a trading platform, in a note to clients this morning.
“Indeed, recession odds are climbing even further due to the pushback on the timing of cuts. This explains why all three major US equity indexes fell on Wednesday.”
UBS’s Paul Donovan agreed in his morning note: “Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications.”
Goldman Sachs’ Joseph Briggs and team say the chances of a recession in the U.S. are currently at about 65%, “but we still see very weak 2025 US growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis.”
“Given the significant trade policy uncertainties, the outlook remains very fluid and we see a low bar for returning to a recession baseline,” they told clients in a note seen by Fortune. “Taken together, we see three 25bp ‘insurance cuts’ from the Fed to protect against sluggish growth and labor market softening.”